The godfather of the inverted yield curve breaks down why his famous recession indicator with a perfect track record won’t be accurate this time around

• The inverted yield curve has preceded the last eight recessions.
• The curve has been inverted since October this year. 
• But Cam Harvey, who discovered the recession indicator, doesn’t think a downturn is coming.

With calls for a recession in 2023 now the base-case scenario for many economists, the inverted yield curve looks primed to keep its perfect track record as a predictor.